Penalty Shoot Out
P(l)ayoff table What's the best strategy for taking or defending penalty kicks? Essentially there are three options for each player: go left, right or centre. But what proportion of the time should each player take each of these options? We can try to answer this with a toy model and see what happens. In this model the goal is always saved if the choices match and is always conceded if they don't. What makes this model interesting is the "utility" of each outcome to each player. We could choose 1:0 to the striker for a goal and 1:0 to the goalie for a save, but we can make things more realistic by applying a bit of psychology. Let's face it: if the goalie doesn't move and the ball goes left or right s/he will look pretty stupid. For that reason I have given the goalie a minus one in this case. Likewise if the striker shoots towards the middle and the goal is saved then the striker will look silly, so in that case he or she gets a minus o...